A Concern for Parents and Students: Wide Discrepancies between Predicted and Actual A- Level Results

This is a very interesting news because sometime after the A level results came out this year, we did talk about these predicted grades. Now there are confirmed findings in the past week that ‘fewer than half of teacher’s predictions turned out to be correct and that one in eight were out by more than one grade.

Research by Cambridge Assessment, which owns OCR, a leading exam board, found that 48.3 per cent of teachers’ predictions were correct, down from 54.7 per cent when a similar study was last carried out in 2011. Just over 8 per cent of forecasts were out by two grades or more.

Now this is big and is a massive worry for families all across the country because although Personal Statements, As grades, GCSE results all play a role in our children’s university admission, none is weighed as heavily as predictions of A Level grades, made by our children’s teachers and submitted as part of the application process up to nine months before the A Level exams.

For most students aspiring to go to university, these predictions will form the basis of the offers they receive. Failure to meet these offers could mean missing out on the first choice of university, going into clearing and perhaps failing to gain a place at all.

According to the Telegraph, the review of almost 190,000 papers found that more than a third of forecasts were higher than the grades actually achieved, with 13 per cent under-predicted. It went on to say that ‘While it may seem that an over-optimistic prediction could work to the student’s advantage, in practice the opposite is often the case. Failing to get the forecast grades means the student risks missing out on their preferred choice of university, and having to rely on a less-favoured fall-back option.’

source: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/educationopinion/10402209/Teachers-forecasts-arent-making-thegrade.html

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